Yeah they're one of the teams I really don't rate beyond maybe fluking into a single draw if they're lucky. I honestly expect them to lose all 3 and do it handily. Same with Iran and whoever loses out of Tunisia and Panama. Japan might get 0 too, although that has more to do with the group (there are no top teams in group H, but all 3 non-Japan teams are kind of tier 2, ones that in an even division of groups, would probably all be 2nd place teams).
Ultimately, I think the problem is that AFC qualifying region should never have 5 bids, compared to the other regions. 7 CONMEBOL teams are better than the best AFC team, but they have the same number of bids. Ecuador (not even the best CONMEBOL team to miss, which is Chile) would beat any of Japan, South Korea, Australia, Iran, and Saudi in a 2 leg fixture. Saudi are the type of team that should be borderline scraping in when the field expands to 48, they're not close to worthy of a bid in the current 32 team format.