Steals by Percentages; S68 draft

[diamond_ace 3,114]

The Season 68 draft, the first draft to include the two expansion teams, was also a draft where the values now vary wildly from the values at the time of the draft. There were some players in the first round that seemed to be great picks at the time, and have now turned out to be significantly worse than expected. There were also players very late on that have been much higher values than they were originally expected to be. This will be (shockingly) an article where I actually do research (gasp!) and find out the steals, the busts, and everything in between compared to expectation. It'll be a relatively simple bit of math - what percentage of the player's current TPE has been earned after the draft? Strictly TPE, not TPA, I don't care if they've banked.

Round 1:

Condor Adrienne - 797 now, 433 at draft, 45.67% of TPE earned since draft

Lance Flowers - 693 now, 365 at draft, 47.33% of TPE earned since draft

Thorny Underyew - 356 now, 313 at draft, 12.08% of TPE earned since draft

Jeff Downey - 647 now, 305 at draft, 52.86% of TPE earned since draft

Luciano Valentino - 646 now, 297 at draft, 54.02% of TPE earned since draft

Frans Eller - 294 now, 290 at draft, 1.36% of TPE earned since draft

Teemu Lehtinen Jr - 373 now, 292 at draft, 21.72% of TPE earned since draft

A Red Guy - 632 now, 270 at draft, 57.28% of TPE earned since draft

Fredrik Elmebeck - 544 now, 252 at draft, 53.68% of TPE earned since draft

Samuel Ross - 311 now, 233 at draft, 25.08% of TPE earned since draft

Raymond Bernard - 609 now, 265 at draft, 56.49% of TPE earned since draft

Wolf Stansson Jr - 529 now, 287 at draft, 45.75% of TPE earned since draft

 

So the first round has a lot of people between about 45 and 55, which is great for this stage of the draft. People who were heavy earners before the draft can't really have gotten that high of a percentage, so you want a player who has earned about as much since the draft as before. There are, however, four players who've fallen well off the mark: Samuel Ross, with only 25.08% of his TPE earned since the draft, Teemu Lehtinen Jr, with 21.72%, Thorny Underyew, with 12.08%, and the worst of all, Frans Eller with only just over a single percent.

 

Round 2:

Owen Nolan - 614 now, 262 at draft, 57.33% of TPE earned since draft

Kaspars Claude - 304 now, 237 at draft, 22.04% of TPE earned since draft

Bruce Grimaldi - 185 now, 176 at draft, 4.86% of TPE earned since draft

Micha Sage - 303 now, 266 at draft, 12.21% of TPE earned since draft - RETIRED

Seabass Perrin - 520 now, 200 at draft, 61.54% of TPE earned since draft

Ricky Johnson - 430 now, 200 at draft, 53.49% of TPE earned since draft

Willie Dredge - 450 now, 224 at draft, 50.22% of TPE earned since draft

Sigard Gunnar - 499 now, 265 at draft, 46.89% of TPE earned since draft

Jeff Tates - 319 now, 184 at draft, 42.32% of TPE earned since draft - RETIRED

Aamon Grim - 238 now, 197 at draft, 17.23% of TPE earned since draft

Finnegan MacBurn - 200 now, 174 at draft, 13.00% of TPE earned since draft

Jerry Wang - 370 now, 137 at draft, 62.97% of TPE earned since draft

Balentine Kidd - 302 now, 171 at draft, 43.38% of TPE earned since draft

Fang Flashback - 291 now, 179 at draft, 38.49% of TPE earned since draft - RETIRED

 

The second round starts to have a lot more wild variance. The first round basically if you didn't miss entirely, your player was fine (or in the case of New York, even if you missed once, your other three players were fine). In the second, some of the players have already retired, a few more have gone inactive, and we even see the first two players breach the 60% threshold (Seabass Perrin of Prague with the best combo of percentage and pure TPE we've seen so far, and Jerry Wang of Vancouver, formerly of Davos, with the best percentage). Again, anyone in the 40s or 50s has done just fine for their teams, excluding retired players and the now-inactive Balentine Kidd who was low enough at the time that his percentage could afford to rise before he left.

 

Round 3:

Gert B Frobe - 323 now, 210 at draft, 34.98% of TPE earned since draft

Andrej Petrovic - 278 now, 166 at draft, 40.29% of TPE earned since draft

Ryan Busser - 405 now, 186 at draft, 54.07% of TPE earned since draft

Killy Foilen - 329 now, 137 at draft, 58.36% of TPE earned since draft

Mac Hooper - 297 now, 165 at draft, 44.44% of TPE earned since draft

Nate Telker - 381 now, 127 at draft, 66.67% of TPE earned since draft

Ryo Yamazuki II - 378 now, 200 at draft, 47.09% of TPE earned since draft

David Wallace - 250 now, 137 at draft, 45.20% of TPE earned since draft - RETIRED

Jaxon Walker - 278 now, 161 at draft, 42.09% of TPE earned since draft

Tony Bolonee - 342 now, 161 at draft, 52.92% of TPE earned since draft

Liam Rooney - 202 now, 149 at draft, 26.24% of TPE earned since draft

Jacob Perry - 433 now, 164 at draft, 62.12% of TPE earned since draft

 

Much like the second round, the third round has a bit of a range, but there are more players who are kind of in the middle. Hooper and Rooney are inactive (both of DC's picks) - if you take a step over to our other expansion team, Prague covers the entire range; one retired player in Wallace, one decent earner in Frobe, and one massive steal in Perry. Speaking of Perry, he and Nate Telker of Moscow join Perrin and Wang in the 60% plus club. In fact, in terms of pure TPE, Perry is only lower than 4 of the second rounders, and Telker plus Ryan Busser and Ryo Yamazuki II (at 381/405/378) are only lower than 5.

 

Round 4:

Alyxander Hunter - 208 now, 171 at draft, 17.79% of TPE earned since draft

Chad Gilbert - 273 now, 192 at draft, 29.67% of TPE earned since draft

Nate Wright - 271 now, 102 at draft, 62.36% of TPE earned since draft

Roadkill Steve - 250 now, 127 at draft, 49.20% of TPE earned since draft

Justin Rushmore - 159 now, 157 at draft, 1.26% of TPE earned since draft

Ondrej Ohradka - 279 now, 115 at draft, 58.78% of TPE earned since draft

Alex Armstrong - 131 now, 51 at draft, 61.07% of TPE earned since draft

Block Buster - 320 now, 147 at draft, 54.06% of TPE earned since draft - RETIRED

Case Martell - 153 now, 152 at draft, 0.65% of TPE earned since draft

Joakim Sakic - 194 now, 94 at draft, 51.55% of TPE earned since draft

Julian Blackthorn - 86 now, 74 at draft, 13.95% of TPE earned since draft

Ben McGirr - 286 now, 86 at draft, 69.93% of TPE earned since draft

 

Round 4 has a lot of people who are inactive - this is a round where the percentages really do tell the story. Anyone higher than 40 is still at least semi-active, with the exception of the retired Block Buster. Ben McGirr is the first player to nearly catch the 70% barrier, and in fact, when I plugged that into the calculator I was surprised to see it come out on that end of said barrier. He joins Armstrong, Wright, and the players mentioned in earlier rounds in the 60% plus club. Armstrong is still floating around despite only having 131 TPE, ideally for Moscow he'll pick it up a bit but he still has a better chance of eventually making it than the players who are fully inactive. Outside of the retired Buster, McGirr is now the highest TPE in the round, although Ohradka and Wright are both in the same range (as is Gilbert, but he's inactive).

 

Round 5:

Jason Connors - 147 now, 117 at draft, 20.41% of TPE earned since draft

Mike Van Stronk - 132 now, 103 at draft, 21.97% of TPE earned since draft

Bud Knight - 227 now, 163 at draft, 28.19% of TPE earned since draft

Beau Bennett - 137 now, 137 at draft, 0% of TPE earned since draft

Ryan Dingle - 50 now, 44 at draft, 12.00% of TPE earned since draft

Ryan Chism - 105 now, 105 at draft, 0% of TPE earned since draft - RETIRED

Benson Kramer - 163 now, 120 at draft, 26.38% of TPE earned since draft

Alex - 97 now, 96 at draft, 1.03% of TPE earned since draft - RETIRED

Keith Harris - 87 now, 87 at draft, 0% of TPE earned since draft

Cameron Eastwood - 70 now, 70 at draft, 0% of TPE earned since draft

Raleigh Ritchie - 313 now, 73 at draft, 76.68% of TPE earned since draft

Lukas Schweitzer - 68 now, 50 at draft, 26.47% of TPE earned since draft - RETIRED

 

Let's get the obvious out of the way now: one of these things is not like the others. Raleigh Ritchie is the first and only player to break the 70% barrier. This, of course, minorly annoys me as I was messaging Danger Golding on Discord from around the Harris pick, waiting for him to fall to my pick, only to see him go one spot earlier. It happens though, and such is the nature of drafts. Schweitzer is at least around as a member, although now as Aleksandra Olsen. Additionally, Bud Knight popped back up last week, and may just eke out enough to make the VHL after all.

Top 10:

Raleigh Ritchie 76.68%

Ben McGirr 69.93%

Nate Telker 66.67%

Jerry Wang  62.97%

Nate Wright 62.36%

Jacob Perry 62.12%

Seabass Perrin 61.54%

Alex Armstrong 61.07%

Ondrej Ohradka 58.78%

Killy Foilen 58.36%

 

Prague x3, Moscow x3, DC x1, Davos x1, Malmo x1, Calgary x1.

1647 words, 3 weeks

[diamond_ace 3,114]

Idea brought to me from the discussion I had with @Victor @GustavMattias @Liberty_Cabbage and @Enorama in Telker's signing thread - @hedgehog337 also posted in there, but about something unrelated

[Enorama 2,039]

11 minutes ago, diamond_ace said:

Let's get the obvious out of the way now: one of these things is not like the others. Raleigh Ritchie is the first and only player to break the 70% barrier. This, of course, minorly annoys me as I was messaging Danger Golding on Discord from around the Harris pick, waiting for him to fall to my pick, only to see him go one spot earlier. It happens though, and such is the nature of drafts. Schweitzer is at least around as a member, although now as Aleksandra Olsen. Additionally, Bud Knight popped back up last week, and may just eke out enough to make the VHL after all.

Top 10:

Raleigh Ritchie 76.68%

 

@DangerGolding 

[diamond_ace 3,114]

oh and for obvious reasons: @cartoes @Liberty_Cabbage @Sebster03 @73MPL4R @Telkster @DangerGolding @animal74 @Aye my name jeff @dylanjj37 @ColeMrtz

[Liberty_Cabbage 81]

They call me the cabbage in the rough!! 

[Big Mac 310]

Jeff Tate’s retired? Damn I had high hopes on him

[ColeMrtz 574]

Did I hear steal?

[DangerGolding 222]

2 hours ago, Enorama said:

 

@DangerGolding 

League ain't ready for the FifthRoundGod. More TPE than a couple of 1st rounders now. 

 

 

Ignore my VHLM stats pls

Edited January 14, 2020 by DangerGolding

[diamond_ace 3,114]

week 1 claim of 3

[Victor 11,043]

Moscow did good.

[.sniffuM 1,741]

eyyy I'm the best of round 1 

[Mr_Hatter 1,608]

3 hours ago, .sniffuM said:

eyyy I'm the best of round 1 

Barely beat me out

[Cxsquared 455]

On 1/13/2020 at 11:08 PM, DangerGolding said:

Ignore my VHLM stats pls

What happens in the VHLM stays in the VHLM

[diamond_ace 3,114]

apparently only claimed this once

 

will claim for 1/26 and 2/9 then, both for dagmar.

 

this is the 1/26 post

[diamond_ace 3,114]

and the 2/9 post