Getting Defensive – Evaluating Talent & Debating Defense in the S66 Draft [1/2]

[Renomitsu 934]

VHL Headquarters – The S66 draft is unprecedented. Don’t believe me? Take a look at my intro here.

 

For the number of ‘firsts’ we’re seeing in this draft with respect to volume (which is commendable in its own right), there is frighteningly little talk of possible elite defenders in this draft. After all, you have to go down twelve spots in the live draft rankings to find a single defender. Rhye Tyr, the highest-ranked defenseman in last week’s rankings, is a startling 125 TPE below from the top prospect in this year’s class; the young Canadian sits below three centers, five left wings, and three right wings. In the first-round mock draft released less than a day ago, Tyr was expected to go fifth overall – but his TPE compared to the next three draftees is sorely lacking, and @DilIsPickle astutely notes that his draft spot is partially due to a scarcity in defense in this draft.

 

Let’s investigate – what defensemen might be best to draft (and briefly, why?), why is this historically-deep draft short of them, and how can we rectify the problem?

 

Best in Class

#1) Aron Nielsen @solas | Minnesota Storm | Canada

6’0” | 205 lbs. | TPE: 166 (+32 from 3/10-3/24)

We can argue ‘til we’re blue in the face about whether Nielsen or Rhye Tyr should be ranked the best defenseman in S66’s draft class, but ultimately Nielsen has shown more upside, has improved faster, and may be more likely to have a successful rookie season. In a league that constantly asks, "what have you done for me lately?", week-to-week improvement is a must. He’s a high-quality two-way prospect that frankly has a skill-set that resembles a center nearly as much as he does a defender.

 

We’ll save the discussion for what type of defender is ‘best’ for later in the article. With 39 points, a +16, 72 hits, and 49 shots blocked in 44 games, however, Nielsen has proven that he can do it all. He’s not as flashy as some of this class’s forwards, but he doesn’t have to be if he’s competent on every inch of the ice. He’ll likely hit the VHLM TPE cap before the draft happens, and although he has some stiff competition from some promising newer players (like our next couple of draftees), Nielsen is a safe bet for a defense-needy GM.

 

 

#2) Charlie Paddywagon @DMaximus | Las Vegas Aces | United States

6’4” | 208 lbs. | TPE: 154 (+52)

Nope, number two in the draft class still isn’t Tyr: it’s the Buffalo, NY-native Irishman Charlie Paddywagon, and only part of the reason is because one of his cop buddies is named Chet (https://vhlforum.com/topic/58556-charlie-paddywagon-an-oral-biography-12/). Paddywagon is a hard-nosed, coach’s dream of a defender: strong, immovable, and capable of stopping pucks and passing as those needs arise. He’s certainly important in the ‘best defender’ argument for this class in spite of a limited offensive repertoire (25 points in 45 games, -5): he averages nearly 2 SB and 1.5 hits/game, and devastates opposing forwards in the process.

 

Paddywagon is possibly the fastest-improving defender in the draft, and scouts have been impressed with his progress especially in the last few weeks. There’s plenty of tape for him, as he participated in S65’s Dispersal Draft, and I wouldn’t question a GM that drafts him in the late first or early second round.

 

 

#3) Jerry Garcia @GustavMattias | Houston Bulls | United States

6’1” | 194 lbs. | TPE: 150 (+54)

We covered this guitar-legend-turned-hockey-player in last week’s article about mid- and late-round steals, and it’s for good reason. While not quite as polished a raw defender as Paddywagon, Garcia has shown excellent puck-handling skills and a willingness to lay hits down on opposing forwards like nobody’s business – in fact, he’s fifth in hits (at 143) in the VHLM and first among Entry Draft-eligible players in S66.

 

He blocks shots (78) at a pace comparable to Paddywagon and Rusty Shackleford, further showcasing his willingness to be physical, but this physicality is also something to refine: Garcia currently has 108 penalty minutes, good for second only to teammate Viktor Kozlov in the minors.

 

#4) Rhye Tyr @Plate | Halifax 21st | Canada

5'10" | 205 lbs. | TPE: 159 (+8)

For most, this will be something of a surprise - Rhye is generally projected to be one of the first two defensemen off the board, possibly mid first round; I'm not dismissing that possibility, as he's considered to be one of the better prospects in the field. Certainly, this young Canadian has the scoring and defensive chops to make that argument; he has 37 assists to his name and earns about a point per game. In recent weeks, however, scouts have suggested Tyr hasn't been improving at as rapid a rate as he was previously.

 

Does this mean Tyr is as good as he'll be against VHLM competition, or is this something more worrisome for the future? If he gets back to work, Tyr could still be a first-round/early second-round pick.

 

#5) Codrick Past @Kylrad | Ottawa Lynx | United Kingdom

6’0” | 190 lbs. | TPE: 133 (+38)

One of the more promising two-way defenders in the minors, Codrick Past talks and plays a big game. He recently announced his preferences for draft destinations, but importantly showed that the choice of General Manager (and fantasy league results, heh) are moreimportant than current team success for him. He also recently accused some fellow VHLMers of doping.

 

On the ice, he’s shown to be an excellent passer (48 assists in 44 games) and a pretty good defender (83 hits & shot blocks) through his 44 games; he’s anchored an otherwise talent-depleted Ottawa Lynx defense and could go as early as the late second round for GMs in need.

 

#6) Rusty Shackleford @K1NG LINUS | Saskatoon Wild | United States

6’5” | 225 lbs. | TPE: 121 (+51)

Rounding out our top five is an actual steak-and-pulled-pork-eating, PBR/Bulleit Bourbon-drinking cowboy’s son in Rusty Shackleford. He brings his tough Texas attitude to the ice, where he’s the closest thing to an enforcer this class has; like Garcia, he has an abundance of hits (126), blocked shots (79), and penalty minutes (94).

 

Some scouts make an argument that Shackleford may actually be worth taking as high as the early third round; he’s improved quickly and has similar upside to many of the defenders higher up in this list, but simply had a later start (first TPE added in week ending March 3^rd)

 

#7) Andreas Sundell @VisualDarkness | Minnesota Storm | TPE: 120 (+38) | Playmaking Defenseman (SK, DF, PH)

Sundell has a solid chance of breaking into the mid or early fourth round for the astute GM. He’ll get a chance on the big stage with fellow Euro Codrick Past as a part of Team Europe in the World Junior Championship before you know it. Doesn’t get a lot of chances to contribute points-wise due to limited minutes, but does generate a good number of hits and blocked shots. He has to share ice-time with four or five competent defenders, some from last season’s VHL Entry Draft – so the stats don’t say everything with this promising Swede.

 

#8) Cody Parkey @SaltyTalty| Saskatoon Wild |TPE: 103 (+62) | Playmaking Defenseman (DF, PA, SC)

Parkey is a solid defender with lots of scoring potential (65 passing, 55 scoring); currently projected as a 5^th-rounder but has breakout potential and may go early in the fourth or even in the third. Produces plenty of hits; has only played in 36 games this season. Has an excellent +15, and is a relatively young player (created week of 3/3)

 

#9) Edward Vigneault @Patpou22 | Halifax 21st |TPE: 105 (+46) | Playmaking Defenseman (SK, DF, PA)

Like Parkey, Vigneault is a younger player (34 games played) but has slightly better defensive stats (57 hits, 53 shots blocked). Has shown high-quality passing ability on top of defensive fundamentals. Currently sitting behind S64 draftee Basaraba Moose and Rhye Tyr, but has better draft stock than the latter due to recent improvement, per scouts. Like many of his colleagues, will likely need to spend another half or full season in the VHL before any ice time with the pros.

 

#10) Dwin Championship @Award97 | Saskatoon Wild | TPE: 78 (+41) | Offensive Defenseman (PA, SK, SC)

Dwin is a strange defenseman, with subpar defensive technical skills but a good eye for passing lanes. Primary strength right now is finding high-quality assists and laying out hits. Like most of our defensemen ranked 5^th or lower, Championship shares ice time with other defensemen in his class (Parkey, Shackleford) and hasn’t gotten much of a chance to shine yet.

 

#11) Beau Buefordsson @Radcow | TPE: 89 (+28) | Defender (DF, SK)

Beau is one of the few defense-first defenders in the draft, but he has shown smooth skating and glimpses of scoring potential in recent games. At this point, he’s a bit difficult to evaluate due to limited ice time and his rawness as a prospect - but pro teams looking for some depth at defenseman will find a solid pick in Buefordsson.

 

Honorable Mentions

#12) Papa Gage

#13) Samuel Sparrow

#14) Duncan Jeffers

#15) Richard Hejtsel

#16) Anthony Amberback

#17) Srraxxarrakex II

#18) Finn Theismann

 

[author note: excluded my player so as to avoid some bias]

 

Where Are the Defensemen?

Last season’s (i.e. S65's) Week Two Draft Rankings by @McWolf showed a much different picture than S66’s class: three defensemen in the top four prospects and six in the top twelve actually demonstrated a defense-dominant class. Wings were virtually nowhere to be found – with the first showing up at rank 13 (but centers were abundant through the top half of the class). Is this class's top 20 normal variance, or is it something more?

 

1) Is there a need for defensemen?

One possible explanation for the lack of high-TPE defensemen is that the professional league has enough. After all, if the league is saturated, veteran player builders wouldn’t want to sit behind players 4-5 seasons into their career for their first several seasons. Similarly, if there are a high number of excellent prospects sitting in the VHLM waiting for a chance to start, S66 draftees may need to wait a while before getting any significant ice time.

 

 

As shown above, there hasn’t been significant variance in defensemen among the top 20 prospects (until this season), though it is worth noting that the increase in LWs may be because of a limited wing class last season. Their distribution is important, too - with players like Smitty Werbenjagermanjensen, Dallas Jones, and Brady Stropko Jr. (in a class dominated by defensemen) all projected in the first round, veteran players might have just decided that there are too many S65 draftees just ahead of them.

 

More important, however, is the availability of defensemen to major league teams. Ideally, teams should be able to sport two lines’ worth of capable defenders – or have the means to replace them. Consider how many teams needed to worry about their future or depth in defense last season. Some GMs may have placed their hopes of fielding a good defense on this draft, but relatively few teams (Helsinki, Riga, and to some extent HC Davos, Riga, and New York) have a defensive corps worth talking about. Riga in particular has an excellent defensive lineup and future, with 4 active major leaguers and 4 active prospects to which they have the rights.

 

If teams want to field two complete lines of defensemen, there’s clearly a need – so maybe we need to diversify our search or have GMs reach further down these deep draft ranks for depth at defense.

 

2) Is there motivation to make defensemen?

A few VHL.com articles, Media Spots, statuses, and league chatter (Discord) conversations suggest that a lack of defensive stats may drive (1) members to make non-defensive players and (2) defensive players to be built as two-way, or even offensive players. The predominant build is a high Defense attribute with Passing, Scoring, and Skating; depending on the build, Puck Handling and (more rarely) Checking is seen on defensemen.

 

Let’s take Calgary’s defensemen as an example. Lando Baxter @Elhandon, the team’s highest-rated defender, has exceptional skating, roughly 85 Puck Handling, Defense, and Passing, and 75 Scoring. Their other defenders Dallas Jones @Trifecta and Elasmobranch Fish @Sharkstrong both have about 75 Scoring; Jones is very balanced between scoring, playmaking, and defense, while Fish is a bit more defensively oriented (90 DF, 80 PH, 60 CK) but still possesses average passing and scoring. In fact, among all players on the Wranglers, the lowest Scoring attribute is 73; only one player has Checking above the first TP threshold (70).

 

Even last year’s champions, the Toronto Legion, started two defensemen with 90+ scoring – each within one point of their defense (Tzuyu @tfong and Robert Malenko @pennypenny), and neither of which invested heavily in checking (40 and 50, respectively). These builds (and builders – looking at you, tfong <3) are so successful that the Best Defenseman trophy was split in three several seasons ago – producing the Jake Wylde, Alexander Valiq, and Sterling Labatte trophies for best defensive, offensive, and overall defenseman, respectively. Furthermore, the last defenseman to earn either of the Scotty Campbell or Brett Slobodzian trophies was Guntis Petenis (who earned both) in S54. Before that, Daniel Braxton took home the Slobodzian trophy in S27, and we have to dig to S20 until Patrick Bergqvist, the second-to-last defenseman recipient of the Campbell trophy.

 

In an offense-driven league, however, a lack of defensive MVPs/MOPs seems like a given. Importantly, diversity in defense builds is just as important as diversity in forward archetypes. On top of that, defensemen have three position-specific awards and equal representation (due to lower player population & fewer positions for defensemen on teams), and we had  high-quality defense in the S65 draft, so we have to ask...

 

3) Is scarcity of defensemen in S66's draft even a problem in the first place?

Ultimately, providing some arbitrary, undeserved impetus (e.g. extra TPE, overrepresentation in awards or All-Star teams) to make defensemen would be an overreaction – and if there is a scarcity of defensemen, GMs are much more likely to value high-quality players at this position anyway. For new and old players alike, the most important quality is staying power: will users stick around long enough for their players to see continued success? Is it even reasonable for every team to field a high-quality D1 pair? Artificially overpopulating the pool of D-men will make those users who only want to make defensemen less likely to stick around, and possibly make veterans who would otherwise make forwards enjoy their time in the VHL less.

 

So I ask @VHLM GM and @VHL GM – is this draft's lack of high-TPE defensemen a problem? Does the strength of defense in the S65 draft compensate for this offense-dominated draft?

 

Maybe most relevantly -- who's your top pick on defense, and where do you think they'll go?

 

Also tagged here: @PapaGage, @Birdman, @Tophdaddy, @hejta, @Oost, @flan, @StaticShocked

[Length >2,000 words; I'd like to use this MS for 4/14, and will claim others after the turn of the season. Am I allowed to do this?]

Edited April 10, 2019 by Renomitsu

[Gustav 6,407]

#3? Wow, I can't believe it! Again, incredible article. Loved every bit of it and I'm really loving the first real attention for Garcia I've seen in this league. 

 

...Also, I can confirm that Beau Buefordsson will be a steal. 

[Dil 1,760]

This is really great, keep it up 

[VisualDarkness 14]

Nice write-up!

[Elhandon 66]

Nice.  Thanks for the shout-out.

I've decided not to put too much more into scoring because I'm thinking (rightly or wrongly) a d-man doesn't get as many scoring chances. 

I want my man Baxter to use his speed and passing to rack up assists.  He was in the top 10 for assists not too long ago but alas, a recent slump has not been kind...

[solas 1,951]

Fantastic article, always great to see an in-depth look at the draft!  Especially this one because of how huge the draft class is.  Really enjoyed your last article too.

Personally I just went with a defenseman since I hadn't made one in so long.  Interesting that this class is comparatively thin defensively but I think a lot of guys in this group are gonna turn out pretty well.

[Renomitsu 934]

2 hours ago, Elhandon said:

Nice.  Thanks for the shout-out.

I've decided not to put too much more into scoring because I'm thinking (rightly or wrongly) a d-man doesn't get as many scoring chances. 

I want my man Baxter to use his speed and passing to rack up assists.  He was in the top 10 for assists not too long ago but alas, a recent slump has not been kind...

I'm definitely appreciative of the build! There is absolutely nothing wrong with putting points in offensive scoring/facilitating attributes, and I feel like there are still builds left undiscovered after 65 seasons. Best of luck to Baxter.

 

11 minutes ago, solas said:

Fantastic article, always great to see an in-depth look at the draft!  Especially this one because of how huge the draft class is.  Really enjoyed your last article too.

Personally I just went with a defenseman since I hadn't made one in so long.  Interesting that this class is comparatively thin defensively but I think a lot of guys in this group are gonna turn out pretty well.

I agree. As with any class there will inevitably be users that drop out, so GMs have a LOT of work ahead of them for the Entry Draft this time around.

The cross-recruitment drive has been awesome - this class is absurdly deep, but the lack of a singular stand-out defenseman means first-time players and returners (like Nielsen) have a shot at being stars!

[ShawnGlade 1,010]

I guess since i was tagged ill give some input

 

i think the leagues favors offense over defense so i can see why forwards are becoming more popular. However we always talk about this could be the best draft class maybe ever in the VHL, yet there are no defensemen that really stand out. Its surprising for sure, that there are really no bad first round picks, except all of them are forwards. I think the lack of defensemen is due in part to players wanting to be in the best scorer on their team, therefore were seeing less and less players who give a shit about defense.

 

however i want to make this very clear to newer members. Defensemen CAN be offensively minded. Ill use my own defenseman as an example. Shawn Glade is currently a defender on the Riga Reign. His VHLM season saw him score 108 points and 48 goals. This was the best season by a dman in nearly 10 seasons. He just finished in 5th place for points among dmen, as well as achieving top 10 in plus/minus as well as shots blocked. You could prolly make an argument for Glade being thr best two way dman in the league right now. My point is that you can be offensive no matter where you play. Id argue dmen are MORE valuable because they have more chances to prove themselves than say a winger

[Enorama 2,038]

On 3/25/2019 at 10:04 PM, Renomitsu said:

Even last year’s champions, the Toronto Legion, started two defensemen with 90+ scoring – each within one point of their defense (Tzuyu @tfong and Robert Malenko @pennypenny),

 

JSYK, Malenko didn't play for the Legion last year, their dcore was basically just Tzuyu

[TheLastOlympian07 2,388]

Review

Another masterfully written article by you. I have nothing bad to say and as you can see everyone cannot get enough of these articles from you. Amazing work, can't wait to read more