The goalie market: expansion will be great, but will it be enough

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The saturation of the goalie market has long been a source of consternation for VHL GMs. For a while there, it generally worked itself out, and I'm not super familiar with how it went before I got here in S19 (my first VHLM season) and S20 (my first VHL season). Then as players such as Alejandro Messi, Vince Stephan, and the like took spots on VHL teams despite definitely not being in the same league as their contemporaries such as Daisuke Kanou @tfong or Joey Clarence @.sniffuM (to use the two of the four who are still around now) it became a bit of a power imbalance: contendership was largely determined as much, or nearly as much, by whether a team had a good goalie as by whether they had a good roster. Then came the influx of the GM goalies; one such example was Andreas Bjorkman @Tyler with then-Vasteras. The thought behind this was that the GM would always be at least moderately active if not highly active, and so teams would not need to employ low-active goalies. This was the trend for years, through several generations of players, but the side effect was that newer members were largely discouraged from making goalies. If an established vet wanted to make a goalie, a team where the GM neared the end of their goalie career would be one of only a few landing spots, or sometimes the only landing spot. If a new member did, it was a pretty hefty wait and see approach - a spot would become available if the new member was truly promising, but anything less than that and it would ultimately become a bit of an issue. For what it's worth, I largely tried to avoid the trend, with some combination of Skylar Rift @Devise (more on that in the historical article here) and Marius Henchoz. Eventually I created Martin Brookside, who finished out my tenure in Calgary and was eventually traded to Cologne after @eaglesfan036 took over in Calgary.

The GM-goalie trend has gone by the wayside, which I largely consider to be a good change, because it means other players can create goalies. There have been plenty of great members to create goalies who have made a large impact on the league since, from first gens Brick Wahl @BladeMaiden, Alexander Pepper @Sonnet and Tristan Iseult, to established non-GM members making franchise goalies Roger Sterling @Will and Ismond Kingfisher (RIP Spade) to guys who skirt this line and are more established elsewhere but have gone on to be great here, such as Finn Davison @Poptart.

As it stands right now, there are 3 goalies in the top 15 of the S68 Live Rankings, and 3 more between 27 and 36. To me, these rank from "obviously good enough to start for a franchise, barring a major life event" in A Red Guy @.sniffuM to "could become a starter depending on how well he gets on with his new team and if he finds his stride in the league" in Block Buster @Banana2311 and everywhere in between. The top three especially look like good bets to start somewhere - but are there three starting spots? The two aforementioned goalies as well as Raymond Bernard @Mr_Hatter, Fang Flashback @uphillmoss, Bruce Grimaldi @Psyduck77 and Samuel Ross @Brrbisbrr will be watching this draft with even more interest than the skaters in it; a skater, short of top activity, will still find a place on a roster and largely contribute just fine. A goalie generally either starts (60+ games) or is a backup (a handful of games, at least 8, but unlikely to go above 12-15 at best) so the cutoff between "did enough" and "didn't quite do enough" is a much sharper cutoff at this position. Plus, that doesn't even take into consideration the goalies that will inevitably add to the logjam next season, such as Solomon Crawford @AndrewWarren13. So what spots are open now, what spots will be opening, and what spots are mostly spoken for?

 

Obviously the two biggest opportunities for new goalies are with the expansion teams, one of which is mine. @Enorama I'm sure is doing some of his own research already, and probably has a few guys he's working with on said research, just as I have. Adding two new starter roles and two new backup roles will clear out a bit of the logjam, but I don't know how many of the guys listed above would want to be a backup, at least beyond the first few seasons of their careers, plus there will be teams with backups exposed in the expansion draft that might be safer bets for us to take - New York for example has 4 goalies, with one active, one semi-active (a convenient backup) and two inactive. Would Eno and I take one of the draftees, put all our eggs in their basket, and pick up a clear backup in the expansion draft so as not to threaten the role of the starter? Would we take two of the draftees (perhaps one from the top 15 and one from the 27-36) and play them as largely a tandem, some split of games in the 50-22 range, so that if the starter leaves, the backup is good enough and active enough to start (at the risk of that not being a situation the players themselves want, although still better than they'd get somewhere else, but one can't always assume people will react to a situation logically)? Would we bypass the draftees entirely, giving a shot to a current backup that's a bit more established than a guy coming out of the draft (example would be Pekka Pouta @Snussu) who isn't earning at a top tier goalie rate going forward but would be a bit more competitive in the first 2-3 seasons of the team than a new player coming in?

It would neither be fair nor correct to put all the burden of housing 6 goalies onto Eno's and my shoulders, and it definitely won't happen that way. There are a few categories the other teams fall into, and first I'll take a look at the category most likely to be interested in picking up some of these players: the starter is aging (in depreciation, or will enter it in the upcoming season) and there isn't an heir apparent. The two most obvious examples of this are Riga and Helsinki. Kallis Kriketers @hedgehog337 and Alexander Pepper @Sonnet are the two highest TPE goalies in the league, and both will be entering their 6th season. Their backups aren't likely to become starters, with this group coming up behind them - Pepper's backup in particular (Tristan Iseult) will be retired at the end of these playoffs and definitely won't be a threat. Clayton Park was at best a sporadic welfare claimer, but at this stage he may not even be that, as he's been gone since July 28th. It wouldn't surprise me if Riga and Helsinki picked up goalies in this draft to develop under the last portions of Kriketers/Pepper's careers and then take over, although either one could just as easily wait until next season and take Crawford or another goalie then, sacrificing a season of development for a further season under the new starter down the line. Moscow could still go this way as well - Roger Sterling will be entering his final season and therefore he'll definitely need to be replaced. Owen May @FacebookFighter, however, is a much better option going forward than Clayton Park, and while May kind of rides the line between starter-level activity and not (he's already been passed by Rayz Funk who is a season younger, but he's also not terribly far behind JB Rift who is two seasons older) it has recently come out that May's activity has been affected by personal issues in his life. Given that, I think the move is likely to go ahead and trust him to start, and let his situation resolve. He's not far behind where a starter needs to be anyway - the aforementioned Rift, one of the "worst" starters by TPE-to-season ratio, is good enough to backstop a team in first place after all. If Rift is enough, surely May can get there with two extra seasons.

The next category is S64, and here is where Rift comes into play, along with two other starters in Brick Wahl and Finn Davison who were mentioned earlier. Of the three, there's actually a bit of a gap, which could come into play regarding future goalie situations. Wahl and Davison are clearly a good margin ahead of Rift in TPE, and so it seems as though the two of them could fight depreciation more easily once they get there. This, to me, makes Calgary and Davos less likely teams to take a goalie at least at this stage. Davos also has Pekka Pouta, one of the better backups in the league but with a TPE total you'd like to see more in an S66 or S67 draftee if he's to be relied on long term. They both still could, especially given the relationship between certain members of Calgary and either S68 draftee Fang Flashback or S69 draftee Solomon Crawford, but it's likely not a direction they need to explore unless someone falls for value late. Toronto, however, provides an interesting conundrum. Outside of Rift, there is not a single other goalie on their roster. We all know Devise doesn't like to keep any draft picks, but if he could somehow acquire one of these goalies (through draft, or more likely for him, through trade) it would leave open the possibility of a certain turn of events. Rift, being far behind Wahl and Davison, is perfectly competent as a starter now but doesn't seem likely to be able to fend off depreciation as easily. Considering Rift is the GM player, and Devise could easily just recreate whenever he felt like it, maybe he'd take a goalie, develop them for a season or two behind Rift as he takes his final free season and maybe the first depreciated season, then allow them to take over as he recreates elsewhere. This also seems like a very Devise-like thing to do since it would continue the window of contention, as there would be no seasons under a low-TPE goalie, since most of the guys in this class would be at or near Rift's current level two seasons from now.

 

The S67 starters or heirs apparent also come as a bit of a tiered system, much like the S64s. Rayz Funk @Rayzor_7 is by a wide margin the best of the class and is already Seattle's starter. It's unlikely anything will change that going forward. If I rank the teams as most to least likely to take a goalie in the draft, which I won't explicitly be doing but you get a pretty good idea from the article, I'd have Seattle dead last. Funk is the guy so to speak and isn't at risk at all. The second tier of S67 guys include two who are in a very similar spot in TPE (one point apart on the portal) but one is the current starter, and the other is set to take over in the future. Michael Johnson @fonziGG will safely be in the net for Malmo for a long time, and appears to be the Davison of this class if Funk is the Wahl, whereas Greg Eagles @Greg_Di has the more heavily developed but significantly less here Ismond Kingfisher to deal with, at least for the time being. It's also possible Vancouver lets Kingfisher dangle in the expansion draft, as a sort of carrot in front of the two new horses in case Eno or I want to contend immediately. Not likely, but possible. Either way, Malmo and Vancouver both seem to be set in goal going forward. New York, however, has the final S67 draftee and isn't nearly as set as the other three. Thorvald Gunnarsson @Saelven88 is the most active of New York's four goalies but he's in the same class as Funk, Johnson, and Eagles, while being well back of Johnson and Eagles and less than half of Funk in TPE. It remains to be seen what New York will want to do - are they willing to bank on the moderately active Gunnarsson or the potential return of Kolur Bjoernsson @jblock3 who hasn't been on in two weeks, or do they take a new guy to push Gunnarsson and potentially take over the net long term?

 

So ultimately, you have Riga and Helsinki who would look for an heir to two successful thrones, New York who may not have what they believe to be the future in the franchise currently depending on what they think of Gunnarsson going forward, Moscow and Toronto who could get creative or could rely on what they have, Calgary and Davos likely aren't quite at the stage to need a goalie yet but could take one if the value presents itself late or for personal relationships, and Seattle, Malmo, and Vancouver are definitely unlikely, unless they grab a backup.

2190 words

Dagmar doesn't have to do anything for a month

[diamond_ace 3,106]

Oh, and since @Renomitsu's ghost was apparently haunting this article as I wrote it, I probably ought to tag him.

[Devise 4,475]

Interesting read it's going to be a fun goalie market coming up for sure. That said, I don't at this moment have any plans to concede the starter position with Rift. Also, I haven't updated him all season and while I'll certainly say the names ahead of me will probably handle depreciation better, I don't necessarily think it will affect me. I haven't updated all season but I generally actually earn 11 or 12 per week with Rift. He may lag behind but he'll fight to keep up TPE and TPA wise. 

 

I think if anything though the current player pool in goal can give GM's far more confidence in non GM goalies, so once the last few fade out we'll probably see it become rare.

[diamond_ace 3,106]

1 minute ago, Devise said:

Interesting read it's going to be a fun goalie market coming up for sure. That said, I don't at this moment have any plans to concede the starter position with Rift. Also, I haven't updated him all season and while I'll certainly say the names ahead of me will probably handle depreciation better, I don't necessarily think it will affect me. I haven't updated all season but I generally actually earn 11 or 12 per week with Rift. He may lag behind but he'll fight to keep up TPE and TPA wise. 

 

I think if anything though the current player pool in goal can give GM's far more confidence in non GM goalies, so once the last few fade out we'll probably see it become rare.

I didn't necessarily think you would, but it was a creative enough solution that I could see it happening. It would be very you to do something out of the box like that.

[Devise 4,475]

1 minute ago, diamond_ace said:

I didn't necessarily think you would, but it was a creative enough solution that I could see it happening. It would be very you to do something out of the box like that.

 

Yeah I feel like I burned my HoF chance retiring Skylar that I think I'm fine just earning and auto piloting with JB and seeing if goalie is the only good type of players STHS will let me have lol. 

[Rayzor_7 741]

55 minutes ago, diamond_ace said:

Funk is the guy so to speak

[BladeMaiden 1,807]

34 minutes ago, Rayzor_7 said:

 

And so the trend of vhlm GMs that are goalies continues lol

[Mr_Hatter 1,603]

Love the write up! This draft, and the seasons following, certainly will be interesting from someone in my position. Good luck to my fellow S68 goalies

[AW13 196]

Crawford is going to the hall of fame  any GM needs to seriously consider going goalie in S69!

[eaglesfan036 4,583]

Nice article I was actually just recently thinking about the same topic, and also why I would never want to create a goalie at this rate

[diamond_ace 3,106]

this plus the article above gets me full bonus for havlova

[diamond_ace 3,106]

Ni

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San

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Shi/Yon