VSN Predicts: The S97 VHL and VHLM Playoffs

[LucyXpher 1,719]

Graphic @LucyXpher

With the regular season in the rear-view, the S97 playoffs are underway in both the VHL and VHLM.  At this point, our VSN team has already provided some playoff preview coverage in the form of a Simon Says Podcast and a new episode of the Piffcast, as well as an excellent article by @Baby Boomer on the VHLM playoffs.  That being said, we did an internal poll at VSN to see how our contributors (a.k.a. The Council of Dougs) predict the playoffs will go in both leagues.  Full disclosure, these polls were completed before the beginning of the VHL's wildcard round and the first round of VHLM playoff action, but sims move fast and so here we are, partway through the first full round of the playoffs with some teams already packed up and teeing off their first round of offseason golf.  Though we certainly weren't 100% in our early round predictions, we'll share them with you here anyway and show you who we predict the rest of the way. The playoffs have already given us some early surprises, so if we don't pick your team to win it all, take heart in the fact that Simon often has other plans and upsets are bound to happen!
 

 

VHL Wild Card Round:

Written by: @Doomsday

 

(5)  Prague Phantoms vs (4)  Riga Reign
VSN Prediction: Riga wins series 3-0
Result: Riga wins series 3-0

 

In a European Conference in which only half of the teams were actually competing, it meant one of the four rebuilding teams would reach the playoffs, and that team was the Prague Phantoms, whose 20-44-8 record and 48 points “earned” them a Wild Card spot. They met the 44-23-5 Riga Reign to set the stage for a major underdog story. VSN, however, didn’t buy it: the unanimous prediction was a sweep for Riga. As it turned out, reality quickly set in for Prague as they were no match for the Reign and the VSN prediction was spot-on. Riga had gone 5-0-1 against the Phantoms during the regular season and the dominance continued in the postseason as well. Axle Gunner @Steve scored a ridiculous 11 points in the brief three game series and Prague never held a lead during the series. However, Gunner and Riga would now be advancing to face the Victory Cup winners and the European Conference’s top seed, the Malmo Nighthawks.

 

(5)  New York Americans vs (4)  Seattle Bears
VSN Prediction: Americans win series 3-2
Result: Seattle wins series 3-1 (VSN was wrong)

 

With a historically strong season from the North American Conference in which six teams were legitimate contenders, one would be left behind, and that wound up being the Chicago Phoenix at 40-23-9. This left the 44-25-3 New York Americans and the 45-26-1 Seattle Bears in the Wild Card both with 91 points. The Bears received the higher seed and home ice advantage in the series thanks to their edge in regulation/overtime wins, and with their 4-1 record against the Americans this season, it would seemingly make Seattle an early favorite-- but VSN was divided on this series. New York was actually picked to win by six of the eleven voters, with the majority also believing the series was going to go the distance at five games.

Despite the result of the series, however, New York didn’t make it easy for Seattle, justifying the split in the predictions made. A furious third period comeback for New York was stymied by Georgiy Costanzov @Mongoose87, who stopped all 15 of the Americans’ shots in the third period, with The Phantom of the VHL’s @Hogan empty net goal sealing the 3-1 win. Game Two appeared to be heading into overtime after Wayne Gretzky @MubbleFubbles tied the game at two with less than three minutes to play. However, Kevin O’Connor @Luke033 was called for slashing on the very next faceoff, and Phantom of the VHL struck yet again, scoring his second goal of the game on the ensuing power play to send New York to a crushing 4-2 defeat. With their backs against the wall, the Americans cruised on home ice in game 3, scoring the first five goals of the game en route to chasing Costanzov from the game and extending the series with a 6-2 beatdown. Game 4 went to overtime at 3-3 after a scoreless third period, but yet again, it was The Phantom of the VHL providing the dagger with the series-winning goal in overtime as the Bears would move on to face the top seed in the conference, the Vancouver Wolves.

 

 

VHL Quarterfinals

Written by: @Doomsday

 

(3)  Toronto Legion vs (2)  Calgary Wranglers
VSN Prediction: Toronto wins series 4-2
Result: Series tied 1-1

 

Despite being the lower seed, the Toronto Legion are the heavy favorite per VSN, with eight of ten votes choosing them to win the series, with a majority believing it would take six games. A big reason for this is because Calgary failed to defeat Toronto a single time during the regular season, going 0-3-2 against the Legion. It looked like the Wranglers’ struggles against Toronto were going to continue after falling behind 2-0 in the first minute of the game, but Phil Sakic @Phil kept Calgary in it with a goal over a minute later. Despite a potentially back-breaking goal by Diego Machado @Dadam30 to restore Toronto's two-goal lead just seconds later, the Wranglers fought back to tie the game at three before the end of the first period. Despite allowing three goals out of the first thirteen shots he faced, Spider Panda @Ricer13 stopped all of Toronto’s 38 shots the rest of the way, leading Calgary to a huge 5-3 win over Toronto, with Benjamin Abenduct @Schnee providing what proved to be the game-winning goal in the second period.

 

However, the Legion again started hot with two quick goals in Game 2, this time holding that lead into the first intermission as Dalkr Vidarsson  @KaleebtheMighty stopped all nineteen shots he faced in the period for Toronto. Calgary again held a significant shot advantage in the second period, but only put one of their sixteen shots past Vidarsson to draw to within one. Leif Reingaard @Zetterberg tied the game for the Wranglers early in the third period, but this time, it was Toronto who roared to life and took control of the game, with Andrew Skilton @ace_five_ scoring the eventual game-winning goal just five minutes later on the power play as the Legion evened the series at 1-1 with a 4-2 win. 

 

So far, both teams have alternated controlling the flow of the game, with Spider Panda lifting Calgary to victory over Toronto in Game 1 despite a massive shot advantage against the Wranglers, and Dalkr Vidarsson kept Toronto in position to win despite Calgary massively outshooting the Legion through the first two periods of Game 2. This series seems destined to be won by goaltending and, through the first two games, this could easily go either way. The Legion have a big opportunity to take control of the series at home in Games 3 and 4, but now that the Wranglers have shown they can beat the Legion, they have a chance to seize that momentum and earn their way to the Conference Finals. This has the makings of being a long, hard-fought series just as VSN predicted it would be.

 

(4)  Seattle Bears vs (1)  Vancouver Wolves
VSN Prediction: Vancouver wins series 4-1 (over NYA)
Result: Seattle leads series 2-0

 

This is the series that has the potential to be the biggest script-flipper for VSN’s predictions. For starters, this was predicted to be a series in which Vancouver defeated New York, not Seattle. Yet, despite the Wolves’ 4-1-1 record against the Bears this season, they’ve found themselves down 2-0 to start the series and are in serious trouble as the series now moves to Seattle. How could this happen? The Wolves are the favorite out of this strong North American Conference to represent them in the Continental Cup, so what has them struggling against a team they handled with ease in the regular season?

In Game 1, Vancouver found themselves trailing 1-0 after the first period, but dominated the second period by outshooting Seattle 21-10, taking a 3-1 lead into the final 20 minutes. From there, however, it all went wrong for the Wolves. The Bears stormed back by scoring five straight goals, outshooting Vancouver 15-5 and taking complete control of the game. The Bears rallied from their second period adversities, while the Wolves continued to crumble, with their home fans watching in disgust as their ice crew had to remove Seattle Bears hats from the ice after King Kisslinger’s @Kisslinger hat trick. Soju @Frank did not finish the game for Vancouver, adding further insult to the team. Game 2 didn’t go any better for Vancouver as Seattle quickly jumped out to a two goal lead in the first period, which became a three goal lead following a power play goal by King Kisslinger with nearly ten minutes left in the third period. While the Wolves did quickly respond on Riley Martin’s @Smarch goal just seconds later, it proved to be all the offense they could muster as the Bears won 3-1 and took control of the series by winning both games in Vancouver.

 

There’s no sugarcoating it: the Wolves are in real danger of suffering an embarrassing loss and a quick exit from the playoffs after a tremendous regular season. Since that third period of Game 1, Vancouver has been in a serious funk. They’ve been outscored 8-2 in that timeframe, with the Bears out-shooting them in every period since. Outside of that disastrous period, Soju has played well enough for the Wolves to win games, but Georgiy Costanzov has been phenomenal all postseason long and is keeping Vancouver’s offense ice cold. It’ll be a tall order, but if the Wolves can get some consistency going offensively, their team is talented enough to make the comeback. But for that to even be possible, they need to make a big statement tonight in Game 3 and put a halt to the Bears’ momentum.

 

(3)  HC Davos Dynamo vs (2)  Moscow Menace
VSN Prediction: Moscow wins series 4-3
Result: Series tied 1-1

 

This series has one of the more fascinating predictions of the playoffs for me. The Moscow Menace were a 9-1 favorite to win the series over the HC Davos Dynamo, but the majority of VSN believes that this series will go the distance to Game 7. So while it might look like VSN is predicting an easy victory for Moscow at first glance, if this prediction plays out as VSN believes it will, we’re in for a wild series. It’s easy to see why Moscow was given the overwhelming majority to win the series by VSN: they went 5-0 against Davos this season, clearly having an edge against their conference rivals. However, just as Calgary overcame a winless regular season against Toronto by opening up the series with a big win, the HC Dynamo showed up to Moscow in force in Game 1.

Grimgor Ironhide @FrostBeard put Davos up 1-0 in the first period, with Antonia Bucatini @CowboyinAmerica providing not only the assist, but a goal in the second period to put Davos up 2-0. Six and a half minutes into the third period, however, the Dynamo nearly let it slip away as the Menace stormed back and tied the game 2-2. Deadpanda @Alex, however, endured Davos’ relentless onslaught to tie the game and extra time would be needed to end Game 1. Davos prevailed on Bucatini’s second goal of the night, their third point of the game, and the Dynamo made a big statement to win the series opener on the road and make it clear that they were not going to be a pushover.

Game 2 started out with Moscow being the ones to jump to a 2-0 lead, with Jarmo Ruutu’s @jRuutu power play tally in the first period and a devastating shortie by Pombo @samx in the second period. Davos, however, wasn’t intimidated by the deficit, and Grimgor Ironhide quickly cut the lead in half early in the third period. Moscow’s two-goal lead was restored, however, with nearly ten minutes to play in the third period by River Harrington @kirbithan. Although Sunset Moth @McWolf quickly put Davos back to one goal down two minutes later, the final score of 3-2 held in favor of the Menace as the series now heads to Davos tied at 1-1.

 

This has been a great series so far as neither team has a clear edge right now, and either team could have won either game. Despite their regular season record, these two teams both appear to be very evenly matched and are both playing great hockey so far. Aleksanteri Kaskiniemi-Kekkonen @Snussu has been outstanding in net for Davos, and Moscow has also gotten great goaltending from Deadpanda. In my opinion, this is the series to watch right now and that prediction of this series going to a Game 7 absolutely looks to be exactly where this series is headed if the first two games have been any indication.

 

(4)  Riga Reign vs (1)  Malmo Nighthawks
VSN Prediction: Malmo wins series 4-3/2
Result: Series tied 1-1

 

The Victory Cup-winning Malmo Nighthawks face off against the Riga Reign, fresh off of brutalizing the Prague Phantoms. While there is the considerable stigma of the "Victory Cup Curse", VSN has still overwhelmingly predicted Malmo to win the series anyway, albeit with the Reign putting up a tough fight. In the regular season, the Nighthawks performed a clean sweep over the Reign with a 5-0 record. In Game 1, the Nighthawks looked absolutely unstoppable, outshooting Riga 49-13 through the first period and building a 3-0 lead on goals by Conference Prince-de-Galles @UnkemptCL4PTP, Martin Kemp @leafsman, and Lucy Leitner @LucyXpher. However, just like the one that Vancouver suffered through, a devastating third period waited for them. Malmo utterly fell apart in all aspects of the game as Riga completely took the momentum and erased the deficit with three goals in the span of roughly four minutes, with two of them coming on the power play. Murmurs of the curse broke out as the game headed to overtime tied at 3, and intensified as Ronald Johnson MacWallace III @RJMW took a cross-checking penalty.  This gave Riga a power play which they only needed four seconds to capitalize on as Axle Gunner buried the game-winning goal shortly after the faceoff, his second goal of the game.

The monumental collapse seemingly carried over into Game 2 for Malmo as they opened the game being outshot 10-4, but one of those four shots was a power play goal by Vlad Von Carstein @Dom, inexplicably giving the Nighthawks the lead 1-0 after the first period. Riga would tie the game early in the second on a power play of their own courtesy of Severus Targaryen @Banackock, but Martin Kemp regained the lead for the Nighthawks nearly halfway through the period. The Reign, however, would tie the game again on a Shubham Anand @Will3 goal for Riga’s second power play goal of the period. The Reign would take the lead on their third power play goal of the game in the third period as Ben Laas @dustywilson22 gave them their first lead of the game. Despite Riga controlling the flow of the game for much of the third period, Vlad Von Carstein scored his second power play goal of the game with just over two minutes to play in regulation and Game 2 would also be going to overtime. Mercifully, Malmo fans didn’t have to wait long as Martin Kemp’s second goal of the game won Game 2 for the Nighthawks by a 4-3 score and tied the series at one game each.

 

Discipline has been a big issue for both teams this series, although it has particularly bitten the Nighthawks hard. Six of the seven goals that the Reign have scored have come on the man advantage, 6/17 on the power play this series. It’s clear that Riga’s power play is red hot, and that Malmo’s penalty killers are struggling to slow them down. The fact that only one of their goals in the first two games has come at even strength could be an issue for Riga, but only if the Nighthawks don’t get their act together and keep taking penalties. Malmo’s own power play is 3/11 so far as the Reign have given them plenty of opportunities to score on the man advantage themselves. Make no mistake, this is proving to be a hotly contested series so far that Riga has every right to win with the way they’ve played. But, if Malmo can stop shooting themselves in the foot by avoiding stupid penalties and putting Riga’s deadly power play on the ice, they could rein this series in and come back to Malmo to finish it off.

 

 

VHL Conference Finals
Written by: @LucyXpher

(1)  Malmo Nighthawks vs (2)  Moscow Menace
VSN Prediction: Moscow wins series 4-3

 

So truth be told, we had a tie in our polling for the winner of this series, but most contributors saw it going to 6 or 7 games.  The tiebreaker goes to Moscow based on the fact that they were chosen oveer Malmo as the likely Continental Cup Champions (spoiler alert!).  In what is sure to be a tightly contested series between two teams that were closely matched in the regular season, perhaps this is where the "Victory Cup Curse" comes into effect-- providing Malmo manages to get by Riga in the quarterfinals, these are predictions after all!  Malmo won the season series with three regulation wins to Moscow's two, and marginally outscored Moscow 19-18 on the season.  

 

(3)  Toronto Legion vs (1)  Vancouver Wolves
VSN Prediction: Toronto wins series 4-2

 

Of course, Vancouver getting to this round is a big IF considering they currently trail the Seattle Bears 2-0 in their quarterfinal series, but we're sticking with our prediction here at VSN and picking Vancouver to meet Toronto in the Conference Finals.  That's as far as VSN predicts they will get, however, as the scorching hot Legion are our favorites to knock off the Wolves in 6.  The Wolves got the best of the Legion in their regular season series as they handed Toronto two regulation losses as well as one shootout loss in five meetings.

 

VHL Continental Cup Finals

 

(2)  Moscow Menace vs (3)  Toronto Legion
VSN Prediction: Moscow wins Continental Cup Finals 4-3

 

Okay, this prediction comes with an asterisk because our voters were split between Moscow and Malmo in the semifinals.  That being said, in a potential matchup with the Toronto Legion in the finals, VSN conclusively predicts the Menace will claim another Continental Cup, albeit in a closely contested 7-game series.  It should be noted that in their limited meetings during the regular season, Toronto held a winning record of 2-0-2, outscoring Moscow 15-13.
 

 

VHLM Quarterfinals
Written by: @LucyXpher

 

(1)  Halifax 21st vs (8)  Mexico City Kings
VSN Prediction: Halifax wins series 4-1
Result: Halifax wins series 4-0
 

There wasn't much debate about the outcome of this series over at VSN, the top seeded Halifax 21st were unanimously picked to take their first round matchup against the Mexico City Kings-- the only real debate was whether it would be a 4 or 5 game series.  Boasting a forward group featuring the likes of Pelayo Bolivar @SMYLS4, Ty Duke @TheDuke, Inker Belle @WildfireMicro, and Xhekajsmiddletoe @Xhekajsleftankle, the firepower of the 21st proved to be too much for Mexico City.  Those four top forwards for Halifax combined for 19 points in the first round sweep as they outscored the Kings by a combined score of 10-5.  Halifax netminder Chad Powers @Big_Dyl also had a strong opening round with a .932 SV% and 1.13 GAA.  If Halifax can continue to get goaltending like this to combine with their top tier scoring, they will be a tough out for any team in the VHLM playoffs.  On an offensively outmatched Mexico City squad, Pepe Silvia @STZ performed admirably to hold the 21st to only 10 goals as he posted a .942 SV% and 2.07 GAA.  Top defenders Carl Erhardt @Elite Steel and Ronan Amnon @Breeze837 also put their best foot forward on the defensive end as they blocked 10 shots apiece. 

(2)  San Diego Marlins vs (7)  Saskatoon Wild
VSN Prediction: San Diego wins series 4-1
Result: Saskatoon leads series 3-2
 

A series that most predicted would be a relatively easy first round matchup for the high flying Marlins has quickly turned into a fight for playoff survival.  The 7th ranked Saskatoon Wild have surprised thus far as they lead the series with a chance to close it out at home tonight!  San Diego jumped out to a 2-0 lead in the series after 3-1 and 2-1 results, but the Wild have stormed back with three consecutive wins of 3-2, 1-0, and 3-2.  It's hard to put any blame on the San Diego goaltending as Ricky Lafleur @DarkSpyro has been playing very near his regular season form with a .917 SV% and 1.68 GAA.  Where the Marlins might need more is in the scoring department.  Though they're a little unlucky to find themselves trailing in the series despite an even goal differential, I'm sure they would have hoped for more than 9 total goals through 5 games of this series.  For the Wild, CJ Daniels @xNJDevilsFanx leads the way with 6 points, and Brigitta Sandstrom @Acydburn has 4 points and 13 blocked shots.  In goal, Toby Bob @Baby Boomer is showing why he's sure to be a top pick in the upcoming drafts as he's rocking a .939 SV% and 1.67 GAA, and has so far been the best goalie in this series.  If Saskatoon is going to pull off the upset, Bob will absolutely need to be the best player for his team and a little offensive puck luck could make all the difference.  That said, San Diego should not be counted out and this series seems like it could very easily go to a winner-takes-all game 7.  
 

(3)  Miami Marauders vs (6)  Las Vegas Aces
VSN Prediction: Miami wins series 4-1
Result: Las Vegas wins series 4-1 (VSN was wrong)
 

So VSN was wrong, what else is new, but who could have predicted (except maybe @sadie) that the Las Vegas Aces would lead the VHLM in goals to this point in the playoffs after finishing with the 2nd fewest in the regular season?  In the regular season, Miami had no trouble scoring and finished with a +88 goal differential, while the Aces were a paltry -8.  But of course, this is why we play the games, and Vegas proved that regular season success means very little once the post season rolls around.  In terms of goals against, Vegas and Miami were actually quite comparable as Miami surrendered only 8 fewer goals over the 72 game campaign.  We knew the Aces had some serious talent on the blueline with Albin Aldgard @animal74 and Kazuma Satou @Spartan both capped at 400 TPA, while Manuel Ceson @dylanjj37 (301) and Mathias Gunnarsson @ThatCanadian (330) were not far behind.  In the net for Vegas, Onyekachukwu Chidieber Oluwaseun @TenIQ was also never in doubt as a top caliber goalie in the M.  With only one forward over the 250 TPA plateau, however, scoring always looked to be an issue for the Aces.  And yet, against an absolutely loaded Miami team with capped players at every position, the Aces managed to pull off a convincing upset.  

For Miami, it's heartbreaking because of how many players will likely graduate to the VHL next season, but the Aces will hope this first round success helps snowball them to another series victory in the 2nd round.  The scary thing about this Vegas team is they hardly needed their elite goaltender to win the series.  With a .890 SV%, 2.20 GAA, and 2 shutouts in 5 games, OCO was scarcely tested as he faced an average of 20 shots per game and probably performed at a level lower than one would expect.  If he returns to his regular season form in the Semifinals, Vegas is a team that could seriously make some noise. 

(4)  Houston Bulls vs (5)  Ottawa Lynx
VSN Prediction: Houston wins series 4-1
Result: Houston wins series 4-1
 

Though the Ottawa Lynx did get some underdog love in our polling, Houston was ultimately favored to win this series in convincing fashion-- and they did just that, as we rightly predicted in the right number of games (pat on the back).  Shockingly, despite the lopsided 4-1 series score, Houston only outscored Ottawa 11-10.  In reality, it was a very close matchup between the middle seeds which featured a strong showing from Ottawa's Gingy @MexicanCow123 with 7 points in the series, as well as Vladimir Trunov @qripll who posted a .929 SV% and 2.02 GAA in the 4 games he played.  On the Houston side, it was truly a case of success by committee.  Neither of their goaltenders posted exceptionally strong numbers and they had five players tied for the team lead with 4 points in the series.  Going into the next round, Houston will likely need a bit more from their netminders if they're going to keep up with the offense of Halifax, though a balanced attack might bode well for them in the offensive zone.  Frankly, I'm not sure what to make of this Houston team as they do alot of things well, but seem to lack that one missing ingredient to make them a real contender-- but then again, Simon might have other plans.  

 

VHLM Semifinals

Written by: @LucyXpher

 

(1)  Halifax 21st vs (4)  Houston Bulls
VSN Prediction: Halifax wins series 4-2
 

The firepower of the Boat Gang may prove to be too much for the Bulls, though we think they will put up a good fight.  Halifax beat Houston five times in regulation during the regular season, losing only one regulation contest and once in overtime to the Bulls.  Though the results were heavily skewed in Halifax's favor, the score in the season series was a close 21-18 for Halifax.  

 

(2)  San Diego Marlins OR (7)  Saskatoon Wild vs (6)  Las Vegas Aces
VSN Prediction: Las Vegas wins series 4-1
 

Okay, so because of the Las Vegas series win, we had to do an emergency poll for this round.  If things continue the way they are going, we could see a rare 6 vs. 7 seed matchup in the Semifinals if Saskatoon can complete the upset over San Diego.  Our contributors, however, high on the Vegas triumph against the mighty Marauders see the Aces knocking off the Wild (or the Marlins) in 5 games.  Caution: Count out the Marlins at your own risk!  Las Vegas was 6-1-3 against the Wild in 10 meetings, outscoring them 19-13.  Against the Marlins, Vegas was 5-3-3, though they were outscored 14-12 by San Diego in 11 games
 

 

VHLM Founder's Cup Finals

 

(1)  Halifax 21st vs (6)  Las Vegas Aces
VSN Prediction: Halifax wins Founder's Cup 
 

No fools errand is complete without predicting the Halifax 21st as the Founder's Cup Champions.  Will this be the season that the 21st finally capture their white whale, or will another strong season end in heartbreak?  On the other side, will the Aces complete the Cinderella story run from 6th seed to playoff champions, or will they turn into a pumpkin against a team starving for success?  Either way, the stories basically write themselves and it would surely be an enthralling final!  Vegas went 1-4-1 against Halifax in the regular season and was outscored by the 21st, 12-9 through those 6 games. 

 

Editor's Notes: 

• A special thanks is owed to our VSN contributors who voted on the above predictions: @dstevensonjr, @sadie, @SMYLS4, @flyersfan345, @ace_five_, @Ricer13, @Spartan , @Alex, @Baby Boomer, @DarkSpyro, @mmrs617, @OblivionWalker, @McLovin, @KaleebtheMighty, and @Pifferfish.  If I missed anyone, I apologize and thank you for your contribution to VSN, it's rather difficult to keep track of everyone when everyone's name is Doug...  
• 2500+ words by @Doomsday
• 2000+ words by @LucyXpher

 

 

Edited Thursday at 08:46 PM by LucyXpher

[SMYLS4 142]

Let’s Go Boat Gang!!!! 

[STZ 5,405]

When no one else believes, VSN does.

[Spartan 4,619]

55 minutes ago, STZ said:

When no one else believes, VSN does.

That's how you know you're getting bounced early. Moscow ain't winning shit now 

[LucyXpher 1,719]

45 minutes ago, Spartan said:

That's how you know you're getting bounced early. Moscow ain't winning shit now 

[Phil 5,138]

Great Article @Doomsday and @LucyXpher! Loved the read!

Edited Friday at 01:28 PM by Phil