VHFL Mid-Season Update

[McWolf 3,116]

 

VHFL Mid-Season Update

A look at some fantasy steals and underperforming players

 

Fantasy league drafting is always one of my favourite parts of the offseason. It brings out discussions in the locker rooms, with veterans helping newcomers pick the best players available. Some people will draft mainly based on last season’s stats. Some people will draft mainly based on players’ TPA. However, if you want to be very successful, you need to factor in both of these points, as well as the situation in which the players are in with their respective team. Even then, fantasy rankings aren’t an exact science and it’s hard to precisely predict how many points, hits and shots blocked all the players will get during the season. For this reason, it should be interesting to go back to draft patterns from this past offseason and compare to the actual rankings of the drafted players at this moment.

 

Popular draft picks

 

Over the 15 groups, a total of 78 different players were drafted. Ten players of these 78 players were selected in all 15 groups. If we were to separate these ten players in three groups, we could say six of them are returning exceptional value to their owners, three of them maybe could have been picked later than they were and one probably shouldn’t even have been picked at all. We’ll focus on the first group of players in this section. Julian Borwinn was one of them and he was actually the player with the lowest ADP (average draft position) at 2.3, thanks to going first overall a whopping eight times and only slipping out of the first round once. He’s returning good value to members that selected him, as he’s currently the 4th ranked forwards at the moment with 103.8 points.

 

Three other forwards were selected 15 times and also appear in the fantasy top 5 at the moment. They are Hunter Hearst Helmsley, Dan Wilinsky and Randoms. The former two are fairly straight forward: they were both drafted near the top in most leagues -- HHH was even drafted as high as 1st overall twice -- they slipped down to the 2nd or 3rd round in a couple of leagues, but nothing alarming here, as they respectively rank 2nd and 5th among best fantasy forwards. Randoms, however, is a strange case. He was selected in every group, but he had the most spread out pick dispersion, going anywhere from the 1st to the 6th round. At least one member in every group expected him to be a good pick, but there  probably aren’t a lot of people who did expect him to be the highest-scoring forward at mid-season, which is what his owners are getting throughout the first half of the season, as his 125.0 points make him the best forward, and second-best player all positions combined.

 

Only two defensemen were taken in every league, which makes sense when you consider there are only twelve defensemen taken overall in each of these leagues. Unsurprisingly, last season’s Sterling Labatte Trophy winner Smitty Werbenjagermanjensen leads all defensemen in ADP with 8.0, but he also paces all players in fantasy points with 137.2. Diljodh Starload was the other defenseman taken in every league. He was mostly selected in the 2nd-to-3rd round range but currently appears as the 4th best defenseman in fantasy scoring.

 

Disappointing by their discipline

 

Every season, there is a specific group of players I find go way too early in every draft. They score enough goals and assists to make it seem like they belong in the first couple rounds but, when you look at it closely, you realize goals and assists are the only categories they're putting good numbers in. In fact, these disciplined players are all scoring a lot, which makes them kind of safe picks, but some of them were drafted as high as players mentioned in the previous section. Problem is, they're not laying hits as often as some of the league's best physical players like Helmsley or Werbenjagermanjensen, making them lose a lot of points, compared to these power hitters. Such is the case for Kronos Bailey and Rauno Palo, both of whom were selected in all leagues, but are trailing forwards like Helmsley and Randoms due to their low hit outputs. Their high scoring pace still makes them valuable fantasy players, helping them rank as high as 16th and 17th, but the fact that they were both drafted ahead of Randoms in most leagues, the top-ranked player at the moment, shows how little people value hits, when it should be one of the first things they look at when drafting forwards in the VHFL.

 

The same could be said about Jet Jaguar, who had an ADP of 18.0 at the conclusion of the drafting process. He ranks right outside the top 10 in points, but his below-average checking skills leave much to be desired, fantasy-wise, and he only ranks as the 22nd forward at this point in time. Two Seattle Bears forwards are also victims of poor hitting. In fact, Acyd Burn and John Frostbeard weren't drafted a ton of times -- only 9 times combined -- but they are currently ranked 40th and 44th forwards, as a result of the Bears being too deep for everyone to be productive, added to the fact that they only have 15 and 23 hits at this moment.

 

We could also add Tzuyu to this shortlist of players. The Korean defenseman is one of only a handful of the league’s finest defensemen that don’t use their body to stop the offence. She does score a lot, as shown by her Alexander Valiq Trophy won in Season 65, but every season, she’s drafted in the first couple rounds in the fantasy drafts even though she can’t keep up with other defensemen that score as much or almost as much, while also adding a lot of hits to their statline, like Smitty Werbenjagermanjensen.

 

Blueline elites

 

As always, the best fantasy defensemen are a mixed bag between actual great defensemen with high TPE and ok defensemen on bad teams. This section will feature the first group, as the lesser defensemen that are surprisingly leading the pack thanks to a perfect situation in their team, despite their limited skills, will be discussed later. Elite blueliners are mostly hit-or-miss in fantasy, as defenseman scoring is driven by shots blocked, which will come more easily to players on losing teams. That means that the favourites for the Labatte start with a large disadvantage and need to score a lot to compensate. Such is the case for Smitty Werbenjagermanjensen and Diljodh Starload, who are near the top among blueliners thanks to them leading all defensemen in points and adding respectable totals in both hits and shots blocked.

 

They are joined by Riga's Apollo Hackett, who earned the quarterback spot this season after Joseph McWolf was traded away this season. Being one of the most skilled defensemen in the league playing on a very competitive team, he was drafted on average as the 11th defenseman in drafts, but currently ranks 5th, thanks to his numbers all around. His former teammates, Joseph McWolf, is in that same group along with his own new teammate Jerry Garcia, as they form one of the best fantasy pairings in the league, ranking 6th and 7th among blueliners, mostly because of their strong defensive numbers. Finally, forward-turned-defenseman Leph Twinger has been great for the eight owners who believed in him enough to select him as high as 8th overall, as he ranks just outside the top 10 for blueliners, thanks to an insane hits output.

 

Surprisingly struggling players

 

Now, while some players are doing good at the moment and paying off for the fantasy owners that trusted them, some are at the exact opposite of the spectrum, underperforming to the point where one could wonder if they were even worth to be drafted at all this season. The best example of this is Jake Davis, Malmö’s big free agency signings who, despite being given an important role in their offence, can’t seem to put it together at all. While he isn’t having the most horrible year, his scoring and hitting pace are certainly down from the rest of his career, which comes to a disappointment to owners that selected him as high as 1st overall and never lower than 16th. This selection alone will probably cost them a couple of spots in the year-end standings, as he currently sits way outside the fantasy-relevant window, with 49.8 points, less than half of Randoms’ output. This places him 48th among all forwards. While not to the same extent, the same could be said about Davis’ teammate with Malmö, Ryan Sullivan, whose subpar amount of points ranks him as the 23rd best forward so far. He is mostly saved by his 116 hits. One last forward whose performances could be seen as disappointing, fantasy-wise, is Ryan Kastelic. He’s on pace to finish the season with less than 72 points, which would be a first in his seven-season career. He’s just short of the point-per-game pace and still posted respectable defensive numbers so far, so he’s still ranked 15th among forwards, which doesn’t make him irrelevant for fantasy purposes, but we were certainly expecting more from him, as can be shown by his ADP of 8.8 and the fact that he was drafted outside of the top two rounds only three times.

 

Some defensemen could join this shortlist of players who are underperforming when compared to the fantasy world’s expectations for them. First, on the list are two New York Americans who were selected in the top 10 at their positions, but are both currently ranked outside the top 20. Indeed, Lance Flowers and Guy LeGrande were both seen as great defensemen who could have benefited from playing on a struggling team and could have to lead the league in hits and shots blocked. It was certainly the case last season when Flowers finished as the 2nd-ranked skater in the league in fantasy scoring and was given the Jake Wylde Trophy for his amazing defensive numbers. He’ll be hard-pressed to repeat since all of his stats are on the way down from his decorated season and he sits as the 31st best defenseman in the league so far. LeGrande’s offensive numbers haven’t dropped as much as Flowers’, but his low hits and shots blocked output certainly don’t help him and he ranks 25th among blueliners. Finally, Jagger Philliefan is one last defenseman whose fans expectations largely exceeded his actual production. This one could have been predicted, however, as the arrival of Diljodh Starload on the Wolves blueline was due to force Philliefan’s numbers to take a dip. I was expecting a drop, and definitely wouldn’t have drafted him as the 5th best defenseman, but I was certainly not expecting anything so major that would see him only being ranked 41st among blueliners at the midway point of the season.

 

Puzzling goaltenders 

 

Looking at the different rosters during the offseason, it can be easy to see which players are going to have a good season, and which ones are probably going to be stuck with less playing time and, therefore, a lesser statline. So it’s easy to see which players have the potential to be fantasy-stars and which ones don’t. When it comes to goaltenders, however, the playing time aspect can’t be taken into account, since everyone that’s deemed a starter for his team is expected to start all but 8 games (with the exception of Vancouver’s starting netminder, obviously). Then, with the way the scoring goes for them, two scenarios could happen come season end: (1) the best goaltender could be on a good team and have his score mainly driven by shutouts or (2) the best goaltender could be on a very bad team and lead his rivals thanks to an insane amount of saves. Wins are worth 1 point, but shutouts are worth 5 and saves are worth 0.07 (or around 1 for 14 saves), which basically means that winning while letting a couple of goals in on a low total of shots is basically worthless. We are seeing goaltenders from these two groups emerge as good fantasy options so far.

 

Ray Funk currently sits atop the goaltender’s fantasy standings thanks to him leading the league in wins, shutouts, and thanks to Seattle’s defence being just bad enough that he actually faced the 3rd most shots, but it's definitely the four shutouts that drive his score up. Similarly, JB Rift, Michael Johnson, Brick Wahl, Alexander Pepper and Greg Eagles are all tied at three shutouts and they’re all on teams expected to make the playoffs, so they tend to win more than they lose, but they don’t get shot at too often. Therefore, what separates them is the amount of shots fired at them on a daily basis and is why they are respectively ranked 3rd, 4th, 5th, 7th and 8th at their position. Raymond Bernard and Kallis Kriketers are two good examples of great netminders on great teams being skewed by the scoring system. Their 20 and 21 wins are 1 and 2 short of the league lead, but they’re both massively trailing in one category, making them ranked much lower than they should. Bernard only has one shutout so far, but if he had matched Funk’s four, he’d be 0.1 point short of him. Kriketers’ downfall is the fact that Riga is so good defensively that he faced fewer shots against than any other starter. They’re both ranked 6th and 9th at the moment.

 

The only representative from the second scenario is the reigning Aiden Shaw Trophy winner, Finn Davison. Davos took a massive step down this past offseason, and Davison is basically a buoy, barely helping them from sinking. He has made 1,464 saves, which is over 300 more than Bernard’s 1,149, the runner-up in this category. The team in front of him lacks in so many other departments that Davison could only steal 8 wins, but the sheer amount of shots he received are enough to him ranked as the 2nd best goaltender, within 0.1 points of Funk.

 

Steals of the season

 

It could be argued that the first couple rounds of a fantasy draft are important, but I believe that the best way to score well in fantasy is to grab high-end talent in the last couple of rounds. If you didn’t completely miss the mark in the first round and didn’t pick Jake Davis, chances are you are still in the race for 1st in your group, so the difference makers will be your late-round shots in the dark. Unproven players that might save your draft with performances worthy to maybe make them jump to the top half of next season’s drafts. The best steal this season has to be the #1 ranked forward, Randoms. He may not have been available late in all the leagues, but the fact that the best fantasy forward at the midpoint of the season was available in the 3rd or 4th round of most groups is absolutely ridiculous. On average, he went 9th among forwards, so if you were able to grab one of HHH or Borwinn in the top round, a great defenseman like Werbenjagermanjensen or Starload in the 2nd round and Randoms in the 3rd, you’re set to win it all, already. Elias Dahlberg would be my second pick when it comes to players we knew were great but weren’t expected to dominate as much. He was drafted as the 12th forward, but he’s currently ranked 3rd thanks to a pace of around 90 points on the season and a sure new career-high in hits.

 

Next, I’m going to group together a couple of players that were not even selected in the majority of leagues but are all in the middle of a breakout season and all feature among the best 12 forwards in fantasy at this moment. Indeed, no one of Rylan Peace, Dan Baillie, Pat Svoboda, Phil Marleau or Joel Ylonen was selected in more than 7 leagues and none was selected higher than 16th in any league, meaning with hindsight, basically, everyone here could have selected 2 of them in the last 2 rounds. The same could be said about two defensemen, Vladimir Pavlov and Sidney Crosby, who were only selected 5 times combined, both were selected 18th at best, but they are currently sitting as the 9th and 13th ranked defenseman so far.

 

Finally, three players caught my attention as they were selected only once over the 15 different leagues, but are currently outplaying a ton of players, so I thought they (the players and the owners) deserved to be mentioned. In group 10, @Victor knew better than others and grabbed Roll Fizzlebeef with the last pick of the night, the current 19th ranked forward. In group 13, @Advantage selected an inactive, low TPE defenseman in Rusty Shackleford, the 8th best defenseman at this point. What is perhaps the most impressive and interesting pick of the three is @Sebster03’s selection of John Madden in group 6. Madden is inactive and is playing in one of the worst teams of the expansion era, which has him on a pace of almost one-shots blocked per game as a forward. Add that to his 37 points, 89 hits and you get yourself the 6th ranked forward of the league so far.

 

Undrafted wonders

 

Every season, there are a bunch of players no one thought they’d do good enough to be worthy of a fantasy draft selection. Groups only have 6 members selecting 6 players each, for a total of 36. It’s not that much, so it’s just normal that some players slip through the cracks and end up going undrafted in every league, only to finish the season as one of the top-ranked players at their position. Naturally, it happens more with defensemen, due to the fact that okay-ish defensemen on bad teams will often end the season with better defensive stats than the league’s most skilled blueliners. It’s hard to predict who will lead the pack at the end of a season. In fact, just last season, Seabass Perrin went undrafted but managed to finish the season as the best-ranked skater, thanks to playing on a painfully bad Prague Phantoms team. The biggest surprise this season is easily Guillaume Fontenette because he doesn’t even fit either mould I talked about when introducing defensemen. He’s not a star yet and he’s not getting inflated defensive numbers from playing on a bad team. It’s not even that Fontenette is not a great defenseman. He’s skilled and should be a hot commodity for years to come, but he was only expected to be third on the Titans depth chart behind Sidney Crosby and Jesse Wilson, so it was very surprising to see him 3rd in points and 2nd in fantasy points at his position. 

 

However, the next three are textbook examples of good defensemen on bad teams, getting high numbers in hits and shots blocked due to their teams playing without the puck way more than with it. Toronto’s Elasmobranch Fish, Prague’s and rookie of the year candidate Cinnamon Block and Davos’ Basaraba Moose all went undrafted, but they are respectively ranked 3rd, 10th and 11th best defensemen. As easy as it is to find undrafted defenseman that, in retrospect, should have went in nearly every group, it is much harder for forwards. It’s not always true but, for them, the more TPE, the more skills and more skills, the more points. Their team’s situation doesn’t dictate their stats as much. The best undrafted forward this season so far is Jordan Tonn, who managed to score at nearly a point-per-game pace on a great Toronto team that lacks offensive power, which ranks him as the 24th best forward.

 

I don't have the time to put a word up for every player that was drafted. I tried focusing on great early picks, bad early picks and good late or uncommon picks. If your player was picked in the mid-to-late rounds and is returning that same kind of value, I probably skipped you, but good job on making your owner a happy fantasy owner. I crunched the numbers after Tuesday's sim, however, so I have the score for every player and will release a spreadsheet in the comments in a bit if you are curious about how you are really doing. I won’t go check who’s winning every group though, you can figure it out on your own, I guess.

 

Players mentioned: @Jubo07 @Beaviss @oilmandan @hedgehog337 @flyersfan1453 @DilIsPickle @Quik @jRuutu @gorlab @Acydburn @FrostBeard @tfong @Renomitsu @McWolf @GustavMattias @DollarAndADream @Josh @Advantage @Enorama @CowboyinAmerica @Steve @Philliefan @Rayzor_7 @Devise @fonziGG @BladeMaiden @Sonnet @Greg_Di @Mr_Hatter @Poptart @Nykonax @Peace @wcats @StamkosFan @Phil @Esso2264 @Victor @SidTheKid87 @TacticalHammer @K1NG LINUS @Thranduil @Sebster03 @okochastar @monkeywrench15 @Sharkstrong @omgitshim @Toasty @MexicanCow123

 

VSN Writer McWolf

[McWolf 3,116]

Reserved for the spreadsheet

[Steve 1,951]

I was just lucky last season, so I am told. 

[MexicanCow123 915]

3 hours ago, McWolf said:

The best undrafted forward this season so far is Jordan Tonn, who managed to score at nearly a point-per-game pace on a great Toronto team that lacks offensive power, which ranks him as the 24th best forward.

Thanks for the shout-out! I was drafted 29th by Helsinki though. 

Edited December 6, 2019 by MexicanCow123

[Mr_Hatter 1,608]

Bernard bust you heard it here first

[Seabass 593]

Whoa nice work on this update man. Kudos to u @McWolf Definitely keeps me more into the vhfl. 

 

Dont expect me to lead in fantasy points this year though boys.

[McWolf 3,116]

2 hours ago, Steve said:

I was just lucky last season, so I am told. 

don't beat yourself too bad over it, defensemen are weird in fantasy. Just look at last season, when Perrin and Flowers were the top 2 in the league as rookies. But they both dropped this season and Fontenette and Fish are the newcomers near the top. You'll get back up there

[Jubo 1,839]

1 hour ago, MexicanCow123 said:

Thanks for the shout-out! I was drafted 29th by Helsinki though. 

I think he meant un-drafted within fantasy groups

[MexicanCow123 915]

Just now, Jubo07 said:

I think he meant un-drafted within fantasy groups

Ah ya that makes sense. Sorry

[McWolf 3,116]

1 hour ago, Jubo07 said:

I think he meant un-drafted within fantasy groups

yes, thank you!

[Victor 11,015]

On 12/6/2019 at 1:16 PM, McWolf said:

In group 10, @Victor knew better than others and grabbed Roll Fizzlebeef with the last pick of the night, the current 19th ranked forward.

Ah the perks of the drafts rolling into the first few games of the season.

 

On 12/6/2019 at 1:16 PM, McWolf said:

Vladimir Pavlov and Sidney Crosby, who were only selected 5 times combined, both were selected 18th at best, but they are currently sitting as the 9th and 13th ranked defenseman so far.

Damn if only VHFL was real life and Pavlov was even the 9th best defencemen in the league...

[McWolf 3,116]

1 hour ago, Victor said:

Ah the perks of the drafts rolling into the first few games of the season.

Yeah, when you drafted him he was even better than 19th